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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

June 16, 2008

NARAL Pro-Choice America Releases Presidential Battleground Poll

Survey shows choice issue can move key blocs of women voters to Obama

Washington, DC - Today, NARAL Pro-Choice America released a general election battleground poll that shows choice creates a sharp contrast between the pro-choice candidate Sen. Barack Obama and the anti-choice Sen. John McCain and is a top issue for moving pro-choice Republican and Independent women to support Obama. When this critical bloc of swing voters hears just how anti-choice McCain is and his belief that Roe v. Wade should be overturned, they leave him in significant numbers. Additionally, the poll shows that choice helps Obama shore up the Democratic women voters that some thought would not support him following Sen. Hillary Clinton's suspension of her campaign.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted the poll, which included an oversample of pro-choice Republican and Independent women from 12 presidential battleground states:  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

"The data shows that choice is an important issue that can move key voting blocs of pro-choice Republican and Independent women who can play an important role in building Obama's winning coalition," said Al Quinlan, president of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. "Because NARAL Pro-Choice America communicates extensively with this unique swing constituency, NARAL's efforts in 2008 can help Barack Obama win what may be a close election."

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research's poll shows that once pro-choice Republican and Independent women hear a balanced description of the candidates' respective positions on choice, Obama gains ground:

  • Obama gains 13 points among pro-choice Independent women (who make up nine percent of this electorate) and nine points among pro-choice Republican women (who account for five percent of this electorate), when they hear McCain's anti-choice record. 
  • When these groups are combined, this movement equates to a gain of 1.6 points overall in the general election race against McCain.

Choice is the top issue for moving these key audiences to Obama, trumping other traditional Democratic issues and attacks on McCain. Among key voting blocs of pro-choice Independent and Republican women, McCain's anti-choice record concerns them more than attacks on his economic plan and his position on the war in Iraq.

  • Among pro-choice Independent women, 83 percent said that McCain's opposition to abortion for many women - even in cases of rape, incest or when a woman's life is in danger - causes serious doubts about McCain.
  • For these same voters, 79 percent say that McCain's votes against birth control access raises serious doubts in their minds about McCain.
  • Among pro-choice Republican women, 71 percent said that McCain's opposition to abortion for many women - even in cases of rape, incest or when a woman's life is in danger - causes serious doubts about McCain.
  • For these same voters, 61 percent say that McCain's votes against birth control access raises serious doubts in their minds about McCain.

Finally, the polling shows that choice can help Obama gain more ground among women voters considered to be Hillary Clinton strongholds: non-college educated women, older women, and suburban women.

  • Among non-college women, Obama's margin over McCain grows by 12 points between the initial vote and the vote after their choice positions are known.
  • Among older women, Obama's margin over McCain grows by 11 points between the initial vote and the vote after their choice positions are known.
  • Among suburban women, Obama's margin over McCain grows by nine points between the initial vote and the vote after their choice positions are known.
  • Among Democratic women generally, Obama's margin over McCain grows by 12 points between the initial vote and the vote after their choice positions are known.
 
"This poll confirms what we've known for a long time now," said Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America. "NARAL Pro-Choice America is uniquely positioned to help pro-choice candidates win elections from the White House to the state house. We will be working tirelessly over the next five months to ensure NARAL Pro-Choice America's endorsed candidate, Sen. Obama, becomes president-elect Obama on November 4, 2008."

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted this poll for NARAL Pro-Choice America between May 29 and June 8, 2008 in 12 battleground states. This survey of 1,788 likely November voters (1,000 representative likely voters plus oversamples of 424 likely-voting Republican women and 364 likely-voting Independent women) is subject to a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Link to Summary:
Please go to http://www.prochoiceamerica.org/assets/files/naralpollmemo061608.pdf for a summary of the polls findings and http://www.prochoiceamerica.org/assets/files/naralpollslides061608.pdf to access additional information in the complete poll

Contact:
Samantha Gordon, 202.973.3032


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